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Rise and Fall of Protectionis Essays Rise and Fall of Protectionis Essay Rise and Fall of Protectionis Essay 1995); work on global environmental commons; and the emergence of social exclusion as a concept of deprivation (Gore, 1996b). The spatial frame shift is likely to be linked to the re-introduction of a historical perspective, which is already becoming evident, for example, in analyses of the history of globalization of economic activity (Bairoch, 1993; Bairoch Kozul-Wright, 1998; Brenner, 1998). But with the rejection of grand narratives, bringing history back in should not presage a return to the old teleological historicism, but rather identify alternative situations and possible development paths, and thereby inform a RISE AND FALL OF THE WASHINGTON CONSENSUS 801 pragmatic commitment to progressive change in favor of present as well as future generations. The values which will glue together the new way of seeing the world are, like the methods of global analysis, as yet unclear. The most likely prospect is that we shall be blown into the uture facing backward, embracing a form of embedded communitarian liberalism, which seeks to reconcile the achievement of national, regional and global objectives, and to marry universal values with a respect for diversity. But this is still waiting to be born. NOTES 1. That is, a constellation of beliefs, values, techniques and group commitments shared by members of a given community, founded in particular on a set of shared axioms, mode ls and exemplars (see Kuhn, 1970). The term paradigm is used in this sense throughout this paper. . For an extended discussion of the importance of frames in policy analysis, see Schn and Rein (1994). o The notion of the frame is also pivotal in Amartya SenOs work on development evaluation, though he uses the term informational basis of evaluative judgements rather than frame. 3. For deeper discussion of these debates, and the role of international development agencies in them, see Arndt (1987), chapters 3 and 4. 4. This was a complex historical process. As Kuhn (1970) explains, the timing of paradigm shifts is in? enced not simply by scientiÃ ®c and policy debate, but also broader political and ideological conÃ ®gurations. These broader changes, which include the election of conservative political leaders in the United Kingdom, United States and Germany in the late 1970s and early 1980s, will not be dealt with here. For a subtle account, which locates changes in development thi nking and practice within a broader counter-revolution against Keynesian economic policies, see Toye (1993). 5. For these two lines of argument, see various World Development Reports, particularly World Bank (1983, 1986, 1987). The last, as well as criticizing deviant policies, is an exemplar of the mobilization of East Asian experience to support key principles of a LIEO. 6. For an extended discussion of methodological nationalism, see Gore (1996a). 7. The term global liberalism is used here as shorthand for various types of LIEO, which may or may not allow a circumscribed role for national government intervention in market processes. 8. The term historicism is used here in the most general sense given by Popper (1960, p. 3). It does not imply that planning which aims at arresting, accelerating or controlling development processes is impossible, though some historicists would adopt this stronger position (Popper, 1960, pp. 44Ã ±45). 9. Exemplars are Rostow (1960) and Chenery and Syrquin (1975). 10. Lyotard (1984) sees the main criterion which is used to legitimate knowledge after the questioning of the grand narratives as performativity, which is understood as assessment of the performance of systems in terms of the best input/output relations (p. 46). 11. Various academic books and articles are associated with these policy reports. Key elements of Latin American neostructuralism, which developed as a response to the weaknesses of both neoliberalism and importsubstitution industrialization, are set out in Bitar (1988), Ffrench-Davies (1988), Sunkel and Zuleta (1990), Fajnzylber (1990) and Sunkel (1993), and are surveyed in Kay (1998). A Japanese view of the contrast between East Asian developmentalism and the Washington Consensus is set out in OECF (1990), whilst Okudo (1993) and JDB/JERI (1993) discuss the Japanese approach, focusing on two important policy mechanisms which diverge from the tenets of the dominant approach? two-step loans and policy-based lending. UNCTADOs reconstruction of East Asian developmentalism, which was elaborated independently of Latin American neostructuralism, draws on analyses of the Japanese development experience, particularly Akamatsu (1961, 1962) and Shinohara (1982), and key elements are set out in Akyz and Gore (1996) and Akyz u u (1998). 12. For an outline of this approach see, inter alia, Sen (1993), and an analysis of the limits of its moral individualism is made in Gore (1997). 13. For examples of a loose approach to poverty analysis based on the concept of sustainable human development, see UNDP (1995a,b); but Banuri et al. 1994) attempt to give a more rigorous speciÃ ®cation of 802 WORLD DEVELOPMENT 15. There are some divergences between the East Asian and Latin American approaches. The latter gives more prominence to environment and democracy, is less committed to aggressive sectoral targeting (ECLAC, 1996, pp. 70Ã ±71; Ocampo, 1999), and has a more reÃ ®ned policy analysis of the process of Ã ® nancial integration than East Asian developmentalism (ECLAC, 1995, Part 3). But their similarities, and common disagreements with the Washington Consensus, are more striking. 16. For an interesting alternative interpretation of this fault line, see Yanagihara (1997) who contrasts an ingredients approach and a framework approach and seeks ways of synthesizing them. 17. To paraphrase Yanagihara and Sambommatsu (1996). the concept through the notion of social capital. An interesting recent development has been to link sustainable human development to the promotion of human rights discourse, which some see as an alternative global ethics to neoliberalism. The increasing incorporation of the voice of nongovernment organizations (NGOs) into or alongside UN social deliberations is also a? cting the SHD approach. A good discussion of some of the notions which animate these discussions is Nederveen Pierterse (1998). 14. It is di? cult to identify an African strand to the Southern Consensus, but Mkandawire and Soludo (1999) seek to develop an African alternative to the Washington Consensus, and UNCTAD (1998, part 2) has drawn implications of the East Asian development experience for Africa. REFERENCES Akamatsu, K. (1961). A theory of unbalanced growth in the world economy. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 86, 196Ã ±215. Akamatsu, K. (1962). A historical pattern of economic growth in developing countries. The Developing Economies, 1 (1), 3Ã ±25. Aky z, Y. 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